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Final 2013 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Well, it’s been a while. A couple people have asked if I was going to do Oscar predictions like I have in the past. Clearly, it won’t be as in-depth as previous years, but I thought I’d at least post a few last-minute predictions (with a little bit of commentary) ahead of Thursday’s big announcement.

Best Picture

  1. Zero Dark Thirty
  2. Lincoln
  3. Les Miserables
  4. Silver Linings Playbook
  5. Argo
  6. Life of Pi
  7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  8. Django Unchained
  9. The Master
  10. Moonrise Kingdom

The first five are shoe-ins, I’d say. And of course, the Academy can pick anywhere between five and ten nominees. I feel like there are enough critical darlings from 2012 that they’ll go for the full ten, though. #6-10 on my list have pretty much no chance of wnning, but I feel like they have enough supporters to score nominations. The only other movie I could really see potentially getting in other than these ten is The Hobbit.

Best Director

  1. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
  2. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
  3. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
  4. Ben Affleck, Argo
  5. Ang Lee, Life of Pi

This is the list I had before the Director’s Guild nominations, and today’s announcement more or less cemented my feelings. This is a bit of a weird category, though, since my predictions leave out a number of very respected directors with big Oscar contenders. I think The Master is too inaccessible to earn Paul Thomas Anderson his second Director nod. Silver Linings Playbook is loved, but may not be seen as the same kind of “achievement” as the five listed above. Tarantino’s Django may be too “niche” or campy for voters to embrace to this degree.

Best Actor

  1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
  2. Denzel Washington, Flight
  3. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
  4. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
  5. John Hawkes, The Sessions

So who is getting left out in the cold? My guess right now is Joaquin Phoenix, since the SAG nominations spelled trouble for The Master. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him bump out Hawkes (whose buzz is waning) or even Cooper, though. Is the world really ready for “Academy Award Nominee Bradley Cooper”?

Best Actress

  1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
  2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
  3. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
  4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
  5. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

This is still a very unsettled category, isn’t it? The only two who I’d say are truly safe are Lawrence and Chastain. I could see Cotillard pulling a Tilda Swinton and getting shut out despite precursor support. And is the Academy really going to nominate young Wallis? Helen Mirren would be a much more typical pick. Even Emmanuelle Riva is a dark horse, though I suspect she will become one of those critical favourites who misses at the Oscars. (Michael Shannon, Lesley Manville, and Elizabeth Olsen feel your pain.)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
  2. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
  3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
  4. Alan Arkin, Argo
  5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

This has the potential to be a really fun category…or a really boring one. Jones and probably De Niro are locks, but what about the rest. We’ve got campy villains (Bardem and DiCaprio), handsome heroes (Redmayne, McGregor), quirky eccentrics (Waltz and Hoffmna), and some old dudes (Arkin, Goodman) all in the running. And is it possible Django could actually get multiple Supporting Actor nominations? Or will that just lead to vote-splitting and cause everyone from that film to miss out? Despite what I thought early on in the race, this might be the most interesting cateogory.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
  2. Sally Field, Lincoln
  3. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
  4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
  5. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Hathaway seems to have this category sewn up. But as for the other nominees, Field is a lock, Kidman has become a surprisingly strong force, and Hunt’s chances are pretty good (but could take a hit if Hawkes misses out). But that fifth spot? I’m going with Smith, but Amy Adams could definitely still sneak in, and critical favourite Ann Dowd isn’t completely out of the running, either.

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Zero Dark Thirty
  2. Django Unchained
  3. The Master
  4. Moonrise Kingdom
  5. Looper

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Lincoln
  2. Silver Linings Playbook
  3. Argo
  4. Life of Pi
  5. The Perks of  Being a Wallflower

Pre-TIFF Oscar Predictions

With the Venice Film Festival in full swing and the Toronto International Film Festival officially kicking off on Thursday, now seemed as good a time as any to update my Oscar predictions. The outcome of these festivals (along with the assortment of other festivals this fall) will probably help to shape the Oscar race considerably. Past Best Picture winners like The King’s Speech and Slumdog Millionaire picked up considerable traction at the fall festivals, as did last year’s The Artist (though it made its first dent at Cannes). I imagine I’ll probably be altering these predictions in a couple of weeks, but here are my pre-TIFF guesses:

Picture

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

The Hobbit

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Zero Dark Thirty

Other Possibilities: Moonrise Kingdom, Anna Karenina, Cloud Atlas, Hyde Park on Hudson, Killing Them Softly, The Silver Linings Playbook, Amour

Director

Ben Affleck, Argo

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Peter Jackson, The Hobbit

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Other Possibilities: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Michael Haneke (Amour), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), David O. Russell (The Silver Linings Playbook), Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom), Andrew Dominik (Killing Them Softly)

Actor

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

Other Possibilities: Clint Eastwood (The Trouble With the Curve), Denzel Washington (Flight), Bradley Cooper (The Silver Linings Playbook)

Actress

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina

Maggie Smith, Quartet

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Smashed

Other Possibilities: Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Meryl Streep (Hope Springs), Naomi Watts (The Impossible), Kristen Wiig (Imogene), Amy Adams (The Trouble With the Curve), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Won’t Back Down)

Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Russell Crowe, Les Miserables

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

David Straitharn, Lincoln

Other Possibilities: Bryan Cranston (Argo), Woody Harrelson (Seven Psychopaths), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Don Cheadle (Flight), Christopher Walken (Seven Psychopaths), Bradley Cooper (The Place Beyond the Pines), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), Joel Edgerton (Zero Dark Thirty), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master

Viola Davis, Won’t Back Down

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Other Options: Laura Dern (The Master), Olivia Williams (Hyde Park on Hudson), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Vanessa Redgrave (A Song For Marion), Annette Bening (Imogene), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Sally Field (Lincoln)

2012 Oscar Winner Predictions!

Well, it’s finally Oscar weekend. In honor of that, I’m posting my final set of predictions for who I think will take home the Oscar in each category. Click here to see the full list of nominees.

Picture: The Artist

Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Actor: Jean DuJardin, The Artist

Actress: Viola Davis: The Help

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Original Screenplay: The Artist

Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants

Animated Feature Film: Chico & Rita

Cinematography: War Horse (tough pick!)

Art Direction: Hugo

Costume Design: Hugo

Make-Up: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Film Editing: Hugo

Sound Editing: War Horse

Sound Mixing: Transformers Dark of the Moon (no idea with this category)

Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Original Score: The Artist

Original Song: “Man or Muppet”, The Muppets

Foreign Language Film: A Separation

Documentary Feature: Pina

Documentary Short: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (yay for guessing!)

Live Action Short: Time Freak (ditto!)

Animated Short: A Morning Stroll (and again!)

Oscar Predictions 2012: Costumes and Makeup

Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)

Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination

Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography and Art Direction

Costumes

1. Jane Eyre 2. Albert Nobbs 3. Hugo 4. My Week With Marilyn 5. The Help
Period costume dramas are the lifeblood of this category. This is a good one. Well, it’s another costume drama. All of the apparent emphasis on clothing in the film could help. It’s a visual feast, and the costumes are an important part of that. Not totally sold on the costumes from the trailer, but it just seems like a natural choice. Evocative of a specific time period. Part of a very popular film.

Other Possibilities: War Horse, W.E., The Tree of Life, J. Edgar, The Iron Lady, A Dangerous Method

Makeup

This is always a difficult category to predict, and there is often at least one WTF nomination that no one expects. For all three films nominated in this category last year (The Wolfman, Barney’s Version, and The Way Back), it was their sole nomination. But alas, here is my best effort.

1. J. Edgar 2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 3. Green Lantern
Movies that require their characters to age drastically often (but not always) do well here. It’s the series last hurrah, and they’ve always been strong with make-up. Peter Sarsgaard looks pretty freaky. And this category isn’t afraid of dud films (see: Norbit).

Other Possibilities: TONS. A Dangerous Method, My Week With Marilyn, The Iron Lady, X-Men: First Class, Albert Nobbs, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, etc, etc.

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