Tag Archives: oscar predictions 2012

FINAL Oscar Predictions

So this is it. In less than 48 hours, the nominations for the 84th Academy Awards will be announced. It’s been a pretty good race, in my opinion. It seems more unpredictable than the past couple of years, which is fun. Movies and performances that should been major contenders have kind of fallen by the wayside, while unexpected dark horses have emerged. I’m still conflicted about a couple of the acting categories, and I feel like there are definitely going to be some surprises on Tuesday morning. Here are my final FULL predictions for the nominees (the individual category pages, which include rankings, have also been updated).

Best Picture

The Artist

The Descendants

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

War Horse

I’m predicting that the Academy will nominate these seven films, though I could definitely see War Horse potentially missing the cut. The other six are pretty much sure bets. If the Academy wants to nominate more than seven (or snubs War Horse), then The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo would be my next guess, since it does seem to be picking up steam. The Tree of Life is another viable contender, but ultimately, I don’t think either film will make it in.

Best Director

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Steven Spielberg, War Horse

In some ways, this has been one of the least predictable categories. Hazanavicius, Scorsese, and Payne are obvious choices, but what about the other two slots? Spielberg should be a shoe-in for the visually grand War Horse, but what if the Academy snubs it for Best Picture. And what about that fifth slot? Bennett Miller for Moneyball seems like a solid choice, but his support really hasn’t been strong this awards season (he hasn’t gotten any major directing nominations this year). Similarly, Terrence Malick would be a very deserving nominee, but The Tree of Life seems too “out there” for the Academy (and if it doesn’t get a Best Picture nomination, could he still get in?). That’s why I’m going with Woody Allen. His film was an unexpected hit, he got the DGA and Golden Globe noms, and everyone loves Woody, right?

Best Actor

George Clooney, The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Jean DuJardin, The Artist

Michael Fassbender, Shame

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

This is one of those categories that seem like they’re all sewn up. But while I am predicting Fassbender, I also wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him miss out on a nomination thanks to his controversial, small film. (Despite what some people are saying about Leo, I think he’s locked.) I just can’t come up with a compelling enough alternative to switch Fassbender out for. Gary Oldman would be the most likely replacement, I suppose, but aside from the BAFTA nomination, he really doesn’t have much momentum. Gosling, Birchir, and Shannon are all vaguely possible. I say Fassbender’s in, but there could definitely be an upset here.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis, The Help

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

These category appears to be a little bit more cut and dry. Sure, Close or even Swinton could miss out in favour of Charlize Theron or Rooney Mara, but I don’t really see that happening.

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

Albert Brooks, Drive

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

We’ve got our winner already in this category, it’s just a matter of figuring out who the other nominees will be. Branagh is in, and Brooks and Hill look like pretty safe bets (but Brooks did miss out on that SAG nomination…). Nick Nolte is the most obvious fifth pick, but while lots of people like the performance, it doesn’t seem like he’s exactly taking this Oscar season by storm. I still think Max von Sydow could sneak in as a surprise, but he’s been almost completely absent this awards season (just like his film). Even Stanley Tucci had some precursor support when he got nominated for a similarly disliked prestige picture. Hammer, Oswalt, Mortensen, and Serkis have at least received a bit of precursor support, but I can’t really see any of those happening. What about Ben Kingsley? At least his film has some traction. Again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset here, but for now, I’ll go with the “obvious” picks.

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

I’ve probably agonized over this category the most. Spencer is the only sure bet. Bejo and Chastain are quite likely. But I could see any combination of McTeer, Woodley, and Melissa McCarthy getting in for the last two spots. No matter who misses out, it will be surprising (to me, at least). I know a lot of people think Woodley will miss out because she didn’t get a SAG nomination (or a BAFTA nom), and that is very possible. The same kind of thing happened to Andrew Garfield last year. But I’m sticking with her (barely). Maybe it’s more wishful thinking on my part, but it just seems like the right film and the right role to get a young actress nominated.

Best Original Screenplay

50/50

The Artist

Bridesmaids

Midnight in Paris

Young Adult

I’m not sure if so many comedies can get in, but the WGA went solid comedies in this category, too. And these were some of the best original screenplays of the year, so why not recognize them accordingly? Margin Call is definitely a possible spoiler, though.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants

The Help

Hugo

Moneyball

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

The last couple of spots are murky, and The Ides of March or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo could easily get in over Hugo or Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy


Cinematography

The Artist

Hugo

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

The Tree of Life

War Horse


Art Direction

The Artist

Captain America: The First Avenger

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Hugo

War Horse


Visual Effects

Captain America: The First Avenger

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

Hugo

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Transformers: Dark of the Moon


Costumes

Albert Nobbs

The Help

Hugo

Jane Eyre

My Week With Marilyn

Make-Up

The Green Lantern

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

J. Edgar

Film Editing

The Artist

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

War Horse

Sound Editing

Captain America: The First Aveger

Drive

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Sound Mixing

The Adventures of Tin-Tin

Hugo

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Original Score

The Artist

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

War Horse

Original Song

“Lay Down Your Head”, Albert Nobbs

“Star-Spangled Man”, Captain America

“Hello Hello”, Gnomeo & Juliet

“The Living Proof”, The Help

“Life’s a Happy Song”, The Muppets

Animated Feature

The Adventures of Tin-Tin

Happy Feet 2

Puss in Boots

Rango

Winnie the Pooh

Golden Globe Final Predictions!

Best Picture – Drama

Will Win: The Help

Should Win: The Descendants

Best Picture – Comedy

Will Win: The Artist

Should Win: Midnight in Paris

Best Actor – Drama

Will Win: George Clooney, The Descendants

Should Win: George Clooney, The Descendants

Best Actress – Drama

Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help

Should Win: Davis is the only one I’ve seen, and I thought she was great.

Best Actor – Comedy

Will Win: Jean DuJardin, The Artist

Should Win: Jean DuJardin, The Artist

Best Actress – Comedy

Will Win: Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Should Win: Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids (though I haven’t seen Marilyn)

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help

Should Win: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Best Director

Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Should Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Screenplay

Will Win: Moneyball

Should Win: Midnight in Paris

Best Original Song

Will Win: “The Living Proof”, The Help

Best Original Score

Will Win: The Artist

Best Animated Film

Will Win: The Adventures of Tintin

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: A Separation

Best TV Series – Drama

Will Win: Boardwalk Empire

Best TV Series – Comedy

Will Win: Modern Family

Should Win: Modern Family

Best Mini-Series/Made for TV Movie

Will Win: Mildred Pierce

Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama

Will Win: Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire

Should Win: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama

Will Win: Claire Danes, Homeland

Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy

Will Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy

Will Win: Laura Linney, The Big C? (No idea who will take this category)

Should Win: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Best Actor in a Mini-Series/Made for TV Movie

Will Win: William Hurt, Too Big to Fail?

Best Actress in a Mini-Series/Made for TV Movie

Will Win: Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce

Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series, or Made for TV Movie

Will Win: Paul Giamatti, Too Big to Fail (these TV supporting categories are so packed that I could see anyone winning)

Supporting Actress in a Series, Mini-Series, or Made for TV Movie

Will Win: Maggie Smith, Dowton Abbey

10 Actors Who I’m Happy To See Nominated Just Because I Like Them

  • Michael Fassbender
  • Ryan Gosling
  • William Hurt
  • Diane Lane
  • Joseph Gordon-Levitt
  • Kelly MacDonald
  • Bill Nighy
  • Guy Pearce
  • Kristen Wiig
  • Owen Wilson

2012 Golden Globe Predictions

Holy cow, it’s been a busy couple days in Oscarland. Since the Golden Globe nominations are announced tomorrow (!), I figured I’d run down my predictions for the major film categories. DISCLAIMER: They will probably all be wrong.

Best Picture (Drama)

The Descendants

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The Help

Moneyball

War Horse

Alt: Hugo

Best Picture (Comedy)

The Artist

Bridesmaids

Midnight in Paris

My Week With Marilyn

Young Adult

Alt: The Muppets

Best Actor (Drama)

George Clooney, The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Ryan Gosling, Drive

Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Alt: Michael Fassbender, Shame

Best Actor (Comedy)

Johnny Depp, The Rum Diary

Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Jean DuJardin, The Artist

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50

Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love

Alt: Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris

Best Actress (Drama)

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis, The Help

Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Alt: Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Best Actress (Comedy)

Julia Roberts, Larry Crowne

Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Kate Winslet, Carnage

Alt: Cameron Diaz, Bad Teacher

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

Albert Brooks, Drive

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Alt: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close or Armie Hammer, J. Edgar


Best Supporting Actress

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Alt: Berenice Bejo, The Artist or Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus

Oscar Predictions 2012: Costumes and Makeup

Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)

Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination

Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography and Art Direction

Costumes

1. Jane Eyre 2. Albert Nobbs 3. Hugo 4. My Week With Marilyn 5. The Help
Period costume dramas are the lifeblood of this category. This is a good one. Well, it’s another costume drama. All of the apparent emphasis on clothing in the film could help. It’s a visual feast, and the costumes are an important part of that. Not totally sold on the costumes from the trailer, but it just seems like a natural choice. Evocative of a specific time period. Part of a very popular film.

Other Possibilities: War Horse, W.E., The Tree of Life, J. Edgar, The Iron Lady, A Dangerous Method

Makeup

This is always a difficult category to predict, and there is often at least one WTF nomination that no one expects. For all three films nominated in this category last year (The Wolfman, Barney’s Version, and The Way Back), it was their sole nomination. But alas, here is my best effort.

1. J. Edgar 2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 3. Green Lantern
Movies that require their characters to age drastically often (but not always) do well here. It’s the series last hurrah, and they’ve always been strong with make-up. Peter Sarsgaard looks pretty freaky. And this category isn’t afraid of dud films (see: Norbit).

Other Possibilities: TONS. A Dangerous Method, My Week With Marilyn, The Iron Lady, X-Men: First Class, Albert Nobbs, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, etc, etc.

Oscar Predictions Home

Oscar Predictions 2012: Cinematography and Art Direction

Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)

Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination

Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress

Cinematography

1. War Horse

Janusz Kaminski

Watch the trailer. How could it not get nominated?

2. The Tree of Life

Emmanuel Lubezki

I’m doubtful about its chances for Picture or Director, but this seems like a category that this film will get some love in.

3. Hugo

Robert Richardson

The visual scope on this film is quite impressive, and it’s clearly very carefully shot. This film will probably do very well in the technical categories.

4. The Artist

Guillame Shiffman

It’s probably going to get nominated for everything else, so why not this?

5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Eduardo Serra

It’s the last year for this franchise to get nom’d. I don’t think the Academy will go nuts, but I could see it getting in here.

Other Possibilities: Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Solider Spy, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Drive, Jane Eyre

 

Art Direction

1. Hugo

Dante Ferretti

Well, it certainly looks pretty.

2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Stuart Craig

The franchise often gets nominated in this category, so and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one finally ends up winning.

3. The Artist

Laurence Bennett

The silent film era is full of rich visuals. This film is bound to do well in a lot of other categories, so why not here, too?

4. War Horse

Rick Carter

Looks like your typically stunning period epic. Seems like a sure-fire bet in many technical categories.

5. Captain America: The First Avenger

Rick Heinrichs

The retro stylings of the film are very nice to look at, and Heinrichs has three noms under his belt (he won for Sleepy Hollow).

Other Possibilities: Water For Elephants, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Midnight in Paris, Jane Eyre

 

Oscar Predictions Home