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Ridiculously Early 2012 Oscar Predictions

EDIT: These Oscar predictions are no longer current. Click here to see my latest predictions for the 2012 Oscar race, and go here to see Oscar news and more!

Last year around this time, I took a stab in the dark at some super early Oscar predictions. They actually turned out better than I’d expected (I guessed four out of the five eventual Best Actress nominees, and also predicted David O. Russell, Colin Firth, Christian Bale, and Amy Adams for nominations), so I thought I’d try again this year. I’m hoping to do a bit better than 4/10 in the Best Picture category, and maybe get a few more right in the acting categories, too. Maybe The Tree of Life will finally pan out for me this year.

Category placement is also messing with me this year. Are Mortensen, Fassbender, and Knightley all co-leads in A Dangerous Method? What about the mega-cast of Contagion? And do Carey Mulligan (Shame) and Christopher Plummer (Beginners) count as lead or supporting?

(NOTE: I’m currently hedging my bets that J. Edgar and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will not be released this year. Both are listed on IMDB as 2012 releases currently, and though that’s obviously not a definite indicator, by my experience, movies don’t usually come out earlier than expected.)

Best Picture

A Dangerous Method

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Hugo Cabret

The Ides of March

Like Crazy

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

War Horse

Young Adult

Other Possibilities: Shame, On the Road, Contagion, We Bought a Zoo, The Impossible, The Skin That I Inhabit

Best Director

David Cronenberg – A Dangerous Method

David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

Martin Scorsese – Hugo Cabret

Stephen Spielberg – War Horse

Other Possibilities: Bennett Miller (Moneyball), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Jason Reitman (Young Adult), Steve McQueen (Shame), Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo), The Skin that I Inhabit (Pedro Almodovar), David Yates (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2), Steven Soderbergh (Contagion)

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas – The Skin That I Inhabit

George Clooney – The Descendants

Ryan Gosling – The Ides of March

Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life

Other Possibilities: Brad Pitt (Moneyball), Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method or Shame), Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo), Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Woody Harrelson (Rampart), Johnny Depp (The Rum Diary), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Tahar Rahim (Black Gold), Michael Shannon (Take Shelter or The Iceman)

Best Actress

Glen Close – Albert Nobbs

Felicity Jones – Like Crazy

Meryl Steep – The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin

Charlize Theron – Young Adult

Other Possibilities: Emily Blunt (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen), Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn), Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Charlotte Gainsboug (Melancholia), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Emily Watson (Oranges and Sunshine), Linda Cardellini (Return)

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti – The Ides of March

Philip Seymour Hoffman – Moneyball

Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method

Sean Penn – The Tree of Life

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Other Possibilities: Aaron Eckhart (The Rum Diary), Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady), Tom Hardy (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Jude Law (Contagion), John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Christopher Plummer (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Ben Kingsley (Hugo Cabret)

Best Supporting Actress

Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life

Carey Mulligan – Shame

Kristen Scott Thomas – Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Emily Watson – War Horse

Robin Wright – Moneyball

Other Possibilities: Marisa Tomei (The Ides of March), Kate Winslet (Contagion), Marion Cotillard (Contagion), Mia Wasikowska (Albert Nobbs), Robin Wright (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo or Rampart), Judy Greer (The Descendants), Viola Davis (The Help)

Ridiculously Early Predictions for the 2011 Oscars

It’s ridiculous to try and predict the Oscars a year in advance. Last year’s frontrunners at this time seemed to be Nine, The Lovely Bones, and Hilary Swank in Amelia. And look at how that turned out. But I’m going to attempt to do the impossible. These predictions will probably begin to look really stupid very quickly, but I’ll leave them up anyways, since it’ll be fun(ny) to look back on. Some of these films will inevitably tank, and new favourites will emerge out of nowhere (I hadn’t even heard of Crazy Heart until last fall, for example), but I’ll be happy if I even get a couple of these right.

******************UPDATE*****************************

Directly below are my unaltered predictions from March for posterity’s sake, but please be sure to look for my updated picks (along with commentary) over at my new predictions page here.)********************************************************

Best Picture

The American

Black Swan

The Fighter

Hereafter

Inception

Love and Other Drugs

Never Let Me Go

The Social Network

Somewhere

The Tree of Life

Best Director

Anton Corbijn – The American

Clint Eastwood – Hereafter

Terrence Mallick – The Tree of Life

Christopher Nolan – Inception

David O. Russell – The Fighter

Best Actor

Matt Damon – Hereafter

Robert Duvall – Get Low

Aaron Eckhart – Rabbit Hole

Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine

Best Actress

Annette Bening – The Kids Are Alright

Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs

Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole

Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter

Josh Brolin – True Grit

Ed Harris – The Way Back

Andrew Garfield – Never Let Me Go

Sean Penn – The Tree of Life

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter

Elle Fanning – Somewhere

Bryce Dallas Howard – Hereafter

Helen Mirren – Brighton Rock

Julianne Moore – The Kids Are Alright