1. The Help may be an even bigger threat than many anticipated
The Help has been a shoe-in for a Best Picture Oscar nomination for a while now. But do the Ensemble, Actress, and Supporting Actress wins from the Critics forecast its Oscar chances? Supporting Actress seems like a wide open race, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Spencer ends up taking home the Oscar (if she wins the Globe, she’ll become a safe bet for the win). I think Davis has tougher competition from Streep and Williams, but this is definitely a good early sign for her. It’ll be interesting to see how the SAG award for Best Ensemble plays out, seeing as that award often echoes the eventual Best Picture winner at the Oscars. The Help has proven to be a fiercer competitor in the Best Picture race with these victories tonight, but I don’t think it will win the Oscar. Speaking of that…
2. The Artist will win Best Picture and probably Best Director
This isn’t really news, but I’d get used to seeing Michel Hazanvicius endearingly muddle his way through awards speeches. Scorsese and maybe Payne do pose a bit of a threat in the Best Director race, but I really think Hazanavicius is taking home the Oscar.
3. It’s within the realm of possibility that Bridesmaids could be a Best Picture nominee
The PGA nomination was huge for Bridesmaids, and it proved its awards traction again tonight by winning Best Comedy over presumed favourite Midnight in Paris. There are eight movies ahead of it in the Best Picture race, but since the category can go up to ten nominees, it’s a definite possibility.
4. Shailene Woodley is in trouble (maybe)
First Woodley missed out on the SAG nomination, which is kind of a big deal. Tonight, she lost the Best Young Actor award to Thomas Horn. And while Best Young Actor isn’t equivalent to Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars, this loss suggests that support for her performance could be waning. However, Clooney’s win tonight suggests the film isn’t losing traction as a whole, as some speculated, so maybe support for his performance will help pull her through. I hope so, anyways.
5. Plummer is all but a lock for the win
He’s been the frontrunner ever since Brooks lost out on the SAG nomination (I don’t want to hyperbolize, but that snub is huge. Nobody wins the Oscar after missing out on a major precursor nomination like that.) His win tonight suggests that he’ll probably win the Oscar, and I am quite alright with that.
6. Best Actor is probably as predictable as it seems
Clooney has been the obvious choice to win the Oscar for quite a while, but all this hoopla about The Artist had some suggesting that DuJardin could win. Then Moneyball was a big hit and many were championing Pitt’s chances. And while they are still contenders (also: am I the only one who could see DiCaprio pulling out some bizarro win out of nowhere?), Clooney seems to be widening the gap with his win tonight. DuJardin will win the Comedy Actor Globe, and Clooney will probably win the Drama Actor Globe (seeing as he’s also nominated for Director), so Pitt’s chances seem to be diminishing. It’d be fun to have a Clooney/Pitt megastar showdown for the Oscar, though.
7. Diane Kruger is incapable of looking un-fierce
Sorry, this isn’t Oscar-related, but by my money, Diane Kruger is the best dressed at pretty much every event.