SAG Nominations: Helped and Hurt

The SAG Award nominees were announced this morning, and I found the selected group to be pretty interesting. There were a couple surprise nominations, and also a whole bunch of folks who got left out in the cold. Here’s a look at which actors benefitted from SAG nominations, and who was hurt by snubs.

10 Who Were Helped

1. Glenn Close

Without this nomination, Close would have been all but out of the race. She just became a contender again.

2. Leonardo DiCaprio

DiCaprio’s film may have been ravaged by the critics, but SAG nominating him (and his co-star) shows that there is still a lot of support for him. The Academy loves big, glitzy performances, so he could definitely still make it in. He’s two for two with BFCA (Critics Choice) and SAG now, which is more than a lot of actors can say this year.

3. Melissa McCarthy

She’s got the Critic’s Choice nom under her belt already, and she’s likely to get a Golden Globe nomination, too. That would mean that McCarthy hit all three major precursors, and that almost always equals an Oscar nomination.

4. Nick Nolte

Branagh, Plummer, and Nolte are the only three actors who have hit with BFCA and SAG. Nolte’s buzz refuses to die down. This is the kind of performance that could do well at the Globes, and if he gets that nomination, too, that could put him in a very good position.

5. Tilda Swinton

NBR, BFCA, and now SAG? Swinton is a quiet contender who could easily sneak in for an Oscar nomination (especially with Olsen’s chances floundering).

6. Berenice Bejo

She’s another one who hit the BFCA, and now SAG. She’s definitely becoming a stronger and stronger contender.

7. Jonah Hill

Hill has been a quiet, fairly steady presence during this awards season. He’s still a bit of a longshot for an Oscar nom, but SAG will really help his chances.

8. Armie Hammer

Hey, Armie Hammer! You’re back! I threw my support behind him this fall, and just when I thought he was out, he goes and gets a SAG nomination. I don’t know if this will be enough, but Best Supporting Actor is such a weird category this year, you never know.

9. Janet McTeer

This is helpful to McTeer, who missed out on the Critics Choice nom. The fact that her co-star is getting more support will also help bring attention to McTeer.

10. Demian Birchir

In all likelihood, this won’t evolve into an Oscar nomination (a la Noomi Rapace last year). But it’s interesting to bring another contender into the race, however slim his chances may be.

12 Who Were Hurt

1. Elizabeth Olsen

People have been declaring that Olsen is out of the race for a while now (due to her lack of presence early in the Awards season). I had held out hope, but I think that this is the last nail in her coffin. She did get a Critics Choice nom, but her chances at a Golden Globe nod seem slim. This was a key nomination for her, and without it, I don’t see her getting recognized by the Academy.

2. Vanessa Regrave

People have been raving about Redgrave for a while now (The Film Experience even lists her as a “lock” for the Supporting Actress category). But so far, things haven’t really been panning out for her this awards season. Without the BFCA or the SAG nom, her chances don’t seem good. There’s still the Globes, but will they care about Coriolanus? I’m not counting her out yet, though, since Laura Linney in 2007 and Maggie Gyllenhaal in 2008 prove that it’s possible to score an Oscar nom with none of the three major precursors.

3. Michael Fassbender

Fassbender has been a critical darling since Shame premiered at the Venice Film Festival (where he won the Best Actor award), but his film may be too dark and racy to get mainstream awards attention. He did get the BFCA nom, but his chances with the Academy are even shakier after this SAG snub.

4. Gary Oldman

Oldman’s support has been inconsistent this awards season. And that just continues with this snub. Maybe he’s not as safe as many think?

5. Carey Mulligan

Like her co-star, Mulligan needed this nomination to become a serious contender. I don’t think she’s getting in.

6. Shailene Woodley

Woodley is definitely not out of the race because of this, but this snub worries me a little, because it reminds me of what happens to Andrew Garfield last year. They’re young, supporting players in a big Oscar movie. Like Woodley, Garfield received a lot of good reviews and early support. He even got a Golden Globe nomination (which I imagine Woodley will, too). But he missed out on the SAG nom, and, eventually, the Oscar. Is it a case where audiences really like them and their performance, and just want them to be nominated?

7. Albert Brooks

This was a really surprising snub, especially considering that I just talked about Brooks’ “reign” this awards season. I don’t think it’ll hurt him too much, but this just shows that he might not be the impenetrable contender that he was starting to look like. Also, it might bode not-so-well for his chances at actually winning the Oscar.

8. Charlize Theron

Theron’s been on the cusp of the Best Actress race for a while now, and this hurts her chances at getting in. Swinton is starting to look like a more viable contender right now.

9. Max Von Sydow

Von Sydow has been absent so far, but in a lot of cases, I don’t think his film had been screened for voting groups. (Anyone know if it was screened for SAG?) He’s a big question mark at this time, but it’s starting to get late for him to enter the race.

10. Patton Oswalt

The Critics Choice nom was huge for Oswalt, but this is definitely a setback. The Golden Globes will be telling for him.

11. Michael Shannon

This just cements that Michael Shannon is not going to get an Oscar nomination, no matter how much individual critics like him.

12. Andy Serkis

Serkis is a wildcard, and I don’t think he will get an Oscar nomination. This snub certainly doesn’t help his chances.

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