Final 2011 Oscar Predictions!

These are my predictions for the winners in every category at this year’s Oscars. I think I’ve seen more of the nominees ahead of time than in past years, which is kind of nice. This is my fourth year doing predictions, and I’ve always gotten at least half of the winners right, so let’s see if I can keep it going this year.

Best Picture

127 Hours

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

I really want to believe that the game isn’t over for The Social Network, but I also can’t ignore the overwhelming amount of buzz for the admittedly Oscar-friendly King’s Speech.

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

David Fincher, The Social Network

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit

Who would have guessed that Director would be such an interesting category? From the original nominations (the Nolan stub still stings) right down to the wire, it’s unpredictable and exciting (and it makes me so happy every time I see Aronofsky’s name!) It’s tight between Hooper and Fincher.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Not a shred of suspense here.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Portman is far and away the frontrunner, but I don’t think that an upset from Bening is completely out of the question, either.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Bale has been dominating the precursors and gaining heaps of praise. Sure, it’s possible that Rush could spoil that, but I certainly wouldn’t count on it.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Leo’s supposed “antics” are causing some to question her chances (I haven’t really been following it, though). It’s true that Carter and Steinfeld have some traction, and I wouldn’t be shocked if either of them took the win, but my money is still on Leo.

Best Animated Feature Film

How to Train Your Dragon

The Illusionist

Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film

Biutiful (Mexico)

Dogtooth (Greece)

In a Better World (Denmark)

Incendies (Canada)

Outside the Law (Algeria)

I feel like this group of films has a bit of a higher profile than last year’s group, which didn’t seem to get much attention until after the ceremony. But perhaps that’s just because more of these films have had a North American release already. I see Dogtooth as the equivalent of A Prophet last year (in other words, one that film fans love, but won’t win) and Biutiful as The White Ribbon (a grim film by a respected director who has done English language work. Once again, probably won’t win). Perhaps I’m swayed by the amplified coverage that Incendies has received here in Canada, but I think that it could be the winner.

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

I’m actually not sure about this one. They could give it to Nolan as an apology for the Director snub. But when a film is on a role like The King’s Speech will likely be, it tends to take screenplay, even if it’s not necessarily the deserving winner.

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

Best Documentary Feature

Exit Through the Gift Shop

Gasland

Inside Job

Restrepo

Waste Land

Wouldn’t it be fun if Exit Through the Gift Shop won? (and because I’m an uncultured asshole, it’s the only one of these – or any documentary from 2010 – that’s I’ve seen). But Serious Business will probably win out, and I’m predicting Restrepo for the win.

Best Original Song

127 Hours (“If I Rise”)

Country Strong (“Coming Home”)

Tangled (“I See the Light”)

Toy Story 3 (“We Belong Together”)

Wait, you mean there’s no bearded folkie this year? What is this? I have no clue who will win, then. I’m going to go with “If I Rise”, because if Oscar can’t have a bearded folkie, they will usually settle for A.R. Rahman. And since their Best Song Golden Age of the 1990’s, Disney hasn’t had much luck in this category.

Best Original Score

127 Hours (A.R. Rahman)

How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell)

Inception (Hans Zimmer)

The King’s Speech (Alexandre Desplat)

The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)

Fack. I dunno. From past experience, the Oscars aren’t cool, so I don’t know if they’re ready for Reznor and Ross’s brooding, minimalist score. And Zimmer and Desplat are BIG names. Whatever, I’m still going for Reznor.

Best Film Editing

Black Swan

The Fighter

The King’s Speech

127 Hours

The Social Network

Best Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

Hereafter

Inception

Iron Man 2

Best Cinematography

Black Swan

Inception

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

True Grit

This is Deakins’ NINTH nomination, with no previous wins. He’s winning the damn category this time.

Best Sound Mixing

Inception

The King’s Speech

Salt

The Social Network

True Grit

I never know what to do with the sound categories.

Best Sound Editing

Inception

Toy Story 3

Tron: Legacy

True Grit

Unstoppable

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland

I Am Love

The King’s Speech

The Tempest

True Grit

There’s no Elizabethan period piece nominated. Therefore I am at a loss. I’m going with Colleen Atwood because she’s nominated every damn year and has designed costumes for roughly every movie ever made.

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

Inception

The King’s Speech

True Grit

Best Makeup

Barney’s Version

The Way Back

The Wolfman

And now for the portion where I take wild, uneducated guesses (I literally just watched the trailer for the shorts here, and based my predictions off the 5 second clips):

Best Short Film (Live Action)

The Confession

The Crush

God of Love

Na Wewe

Wish 143

Best Documentary (Short Subject)

Killing in the Name

Poster Girl

Strangers No More

Sun Comes Up

The Warriors of Quigang

Best Short Film (Animated)

Day & Night

The Gruffalo

Let’s Pollute

The Lost Thing

Madagascar, carnet de Voyage

One response to “Final 2011 Oscar Predictions!

  1. I’m with you on “Wish 143” for short film and “The Lost Thing” for short animation. I find the short animation “Night and Day” has been recommended by some but I find it one of the most appalling animations I have ever seen.

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