Prepare yourself for a self-indulgent post about how my Oscar predictions throughout the year stacked up with this morning’s nominations. I have no idea if anyone will find this interesting, but since I’ve spent months covering this race, I figured I should at least do some kind of wrap-up to figure out if it was worth it.
Below, I’ve listed the official Oscar nominees. Beside them, I’ve listed the months in which I predicted them to be nominated. If they are in red, that means that I predicted them every month since and including March 2010, which was my earliest round of predictions. If you want to see that original post from March, click here. And prediction pages for each category show which names I predicted each month.
127 Hours: Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Black Swan: March, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
The Fighter: March, May, June, July, Aug, Nov, Dec, Jan
Inception: March, May, June, Jul, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
The Kids Are All Right: Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
The King’s Speech: Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
The Social Network: March, May, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Toy Story 3: June,
July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
True Grit: May, June, July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Winter’s Bone: Nov, Dec, Jan
I had four of the eventual ten nominees in my first round of predictions (including The Social Network, which at the time was kind of just “That Facebook Movie”), and by September, I had almost all of the nominees down solidly. But does that make me a genius prognosticator? Not really. It just means that the race was pretty predictable. Who would’ve thought that movies about the founding of a website, a speech impediment, a crazy ballerina, a bunch of toys, and a guy stuck under a rock would make for the most compelling cinema of the year? But once people started seeing these movies, word spread fast and buzz started to build.
Javier Bardem: June, July, Aug, Sept
Jeff Bridges: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Jesse Eisenberg: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Colin Firth: March, May, June, July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
James Franco: Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
This is probably my category that varied the least from month to month. I really didn’t have too many guesses that went nowhere. I briefly predicted Damon for Hereafter (March and May), I had way too much faith in Stephen Dorff (June-Aug), and predicted Farrell for The Way Back (May) and Eckhart for Rabbit Hole (March) once apiece, but aside from that it was always some combo of the main seven actors. I stuck with Duvall through every round of predictions and backed Gosling through to September. But I can’t say that I’m embarrassed to have predicted them for so long, because they did turn out to be major contenders.
Annette Bening: March, July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Nicole Kidman: March, May, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Jennifer Lawrence: June, July, Aug, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Natalie Portman: March, May, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Michelle Williams: March, May, June, Aug, Sept, Jan
Despite the fact that these predictions were more sporadic, I have to say, I’m kind of proud that I correctly guessed four of the five eventual nominees in my very first predictions. Things got a bit wonky in the summer (way too much faith in Hathaway and Lane), but I managed to get things back on track. I shouldn’t have been so steadfast about Lesley Manville (June-Dec) once the precursors ignored her, but at least I dropped her at the last minute.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale: March, May, June, July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Never in my predictions
Jeremy Renner: Dec, Jan
Mark Ruffalo: May, Aug, Sept, Nov, Dec, Jan
Geoffrey Rush: Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
This was a very strange category for me. There were names that I latched onto for no good reason and just would NOT drop. In Bale’s case, it worked in my favour, but I also spent way too long predicting Andrew Garfield for Never Let Me Go (March-July), Josh Brolin for True Grit (March-Aug), Sam Rockwell for Conviction (June-Oct), and especially Ed Harris for The Way Back (good lord, did I really predict him through to November??). In retrospect, I guess I was smart for being sceptical about Garfield’s Social Network chances, but sadly, I did give in by December. Not my best category, that’s for sure.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams: March, May, June, July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Helena Bonham Carter: June, July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Melissa Leo: Oct,
Nov, Dec, Jan
Hailee Steinfeld: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
Jacki Weaver: Dec
It seemed like I tried anything and everything with my predictions in this category. I was solid on Adams (and I’m glad I stuck with her even when everyone was doubting her and The Fighter over the summer) and Bonham Carter from early on, but some of my other guesses were pretty out of whack. Bryce Dallas Howard (March-July), Miranda Richardson (Sept-Nov), Elle Fanning (March, June-Sept), and several other randoms were poor choices. But considering that I had 4/5 by October, I suppose I did alright, eventually.