My Oscar Excitement is Finally Warranted

Why, hello there.

Seeing as the vast majority of my blog traffic is centered on my Oscar prediction pages, you probably have some interest in the upcoming awards season.

I’ve been frequently updating my Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress prediction pages. But since they’re now buried in the back pages of my blog, it makes it seem like I never post anything new. So I figured I’d pimp out my prediction pages and share a few random thoughts about this year’s Oscar race, which is finally starting to get going in full swing.

Biggest Disappointments (i.e. potentially baity films that ended up getting weak buzz)

  • Miral (which has now been bumped to 2011)
  • Hereafter
  • For Coloured Girls
  • Never Let Me Go
  • Conviction (though I’m still hoping for a Sam Rockwell nomination)
  • Secretariat

 

Biggest Unknowns (at this point)

  • The Way Back
  • True Grit

 

No Guts, No Glory Winner Predictions

Best Picture: The Social Network

Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (The Fighter)

Best Original Screenplay: Another Year

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

Random Notes:

  • Leonardo Di Caprio is not getting nominated this year. Can we all accept this and move on?
  • On that note, none of the performances from Inception, Shutter Island, or The Town are going to get nominated, either.
  • Is Blue Valentine‘s NC-17 rating going to hurt or help the film’s award prospects? Granted, if the rating sticks, it will mess up its distribution royally. But it never struck me as a film that was going to get a very wide release to begin with. The scuffle over the rating is getting far more people talking about the film than would have been otherwise. I’m not sure if it’s a big enough movie to get Gosling and Williams nominations (I hope it is!), but I don’t think that the NC-17 rating alone will kill their chances.
  • I would love to see James Franco (age 32), Jesse Eisenberg (27), and Ryan Gosling (30) all receive nominations this year, but I don’t see it happening. Franco is a lock, but I think the other two are going to have to duke it out, because Best Actor always skews old. As The Film Experience Blog pointed out, only four actors aged 30 and under got a Best Actor nomination in the entire last decade (one of them being Gosling, who was the youngest at 26). So to have two in one year (in addition to the very young Franco) seems unlikely.

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