Last Updated: January 24, 2011
This category started lacklustre, finally took some shape, and now seems to be falling apart again. Leo is the frontrunner, but she strangely missed out on a BAFTA nomination. Steinfeld (if she gets voted in as Supporting) pose legitimate threats in the category, and I wouldn’t count out Weaver, either. I still can’t settle on which five will be nominated. Part of me wants to predict Hollywood darling Kunis over Weaver, but I also don’t want to underestimate the power of a slow-building, never waning awards season buzz, which Weaver has. But if Steinfeld goes Lead, or Carter misses out (which isn’t impossible), maybe both will get in. And even Barbara Hershey is getting some buzz (and a BAFTA nod). At least it keeps things interesting.
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Orange = good chance of nomination
Yellow = a strong contender
Green = in the mix
Blue = longshot
Oscar Predictions Home | Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor
| 1. Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
|
There is no longer a question of a nomination, with Leo winning the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, and being recognized by nearly every critics group. She’s a respected veteran actress, and while her win is likely, it is by no means assured (see: Leo’s BAFTA snub). |
| 2. Amy Adams (The Fighter)
|
The Fighter is a hit, and Adams is the kind of young but established starlet that the awards groups love. Leo has been dominating the awards, and vote splitting between the two Fighter ladies could potentially leave Adams out in the cold, but I am pretty sure that she’ll get a nom. |
| 3. Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
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The King’s Speech is the epitome of Oscar bait, and its three performances have garnered lots of awards attention. However, Carter’s buzz seems to be waning, and some are calling her role in the film unsubstantial. |
| 4. Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
|
Steinfeld is getting lots of praise (the critics groups seem especially enamoured), but category confusion may hinder her chances. Many are claiming that to place her as Supporting would be “category fraud”, yet I don’t think there would be room for her in the substantially more competitive Lead category. Fair or not, her best chances are here. |
| 5. Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
|
She’s quickly becoming a serious contender, scoring Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice nominations. However, her buzz started late, and she may split some votes with co-star Barbara Hershey (who scored a BAFTA nom over Kunis) |
| 6. Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
|
Weaver surprised when she won Best Supporting Actress from the National Board of Review, and many critics groups have recognized her. It might be too small of a movie with too obscure of an actress for the Academy, though. |
Longshots
Barbara Hershey – Black Swan
Awards Tracker
HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics Choice | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
(Red asterisk denotes win)
|
Leo |
Adams |
Carter |
Steinfeld |
Weaver |
Kunis |
|
| HFPA |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
| SAG |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
| BAFTA |
* |
* |
+ |
|||
| BFCA |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
| IPA |
* |
* |
||||
| Chicago |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
| D.C. |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
| Denver |
* |
* |
* |
* |
||
| Detroit |
* |
* |
* |
* |
||
| Houston |
* |
* |
* |
* |
||
| Las Vegas |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
| Ohio |
* |
* |
* |
* |
||
| Online |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
| Phoenix |
* |
* |
* |
|||
| San Diego |
* |
* |
||||
| St. Louis |
* |
* |
* |
* |
||
| Utah |
* |
* |
+ |
* |
* |
|
| NSFC |
* |
* |
* |
|||
| NBR |
* |
|||||
| HFA |
* |
|||||
| Austin |
* |
|||||
| Dallas |
* |
|||||
| Florida |
* |
|||||
| Indiana |
* |
* |
||||
| Iowa |
* |
* |
* |
|||
| Kansas |
* |
|||||
| L.A. |
* |
|||||
| N.Texas |
* |
* |
* |
|||
| N.Y. |
* |
|||||
| N.Y Online |
* |
|||||
| O.K. |
* |
|||||
| San Fran |
* |
|||||
| Southeast |
* |
* |
||||
| Toronto |
* |
* |
* |
|||
| Vancouv. |
* |
* |
* |
+ = nominated in Lead Actress category
Past Predictions
December – 1. Leo, 2.Adams, 3. Bonham Carter, 4. Steinfeld, 5. Weaver
November – 1. Bonham Carter, 2. Richardson, 3. Adams, 4. Leo, 5. Wiest
October – 1. Bonham Carter, 2. Richardson, 3. Adams, 4. Leo, 5. Steinfeld
September – 1. Bonham Carter, 2. Richardson (Made in Dagenham), 3. Adams, 4. Fanning, 5. Wiest
August – 1. Adams, 2. Moore, 3. Bonham Carter, 4. Fanning, 5. Wiest
July – Adams, Bonham Carter, Fanning, Howard, Moore
June – Adams, Bonham Carter, Fanning, Howard, Moore
May – Adams, Howard, Ronan (The Way Back), Amy Ryan (Jack Goes Boating), Spacek (Get Low)
March – Adams, Fanning, Howard (Hereafter), Mirren (Brighton Rock), Moore (The Kids Are All Right)
Too early for predictions? Some think not.
Amy Adams vai ser indicada e vai ganhar o oscar que apostá ela e a malhor em tudo o que faz.
And what about Juliette Lewis in “Conviction”?She´s got strong reviews about her excellent,stunning,awsome performance with a lot of praise.
JULIETTE LEWIS WAS AMAZING IN CONVICTION!
Right after I saw Conviction I thought JULIETTE LEWIS had to at least be put up for the award!
Jacki Weaver should get this one, but in a surprise upset Amy Adams will take it home over Melissa Leo.
You heard it here first, kids!