Oscar Predictions 2011: Best Supporting Actor

Last Updated: January 24, 2010

I feel like the Best Supporting Actor race has been re-shaped a bit by the Golden Globe and SAG nominations. They reinforced that Bale and Rush are the only two safe names, but unexpectedly (to me, at least), Jeremy Renner was the only other name that appeared on both lists. Garfield (previously considered the third most secure name in the category) missed out on the SAG, while Ruffalo was snubbed at the Globes. Then there’s John Hawkes, who is gaining momentum, while neither of the True Grit men are making much of a splash.

Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination

Orange = good chance of nomination

Yellow = a strong contender

Green = in the mix

Blue = longshot

Oscar Predictions Home | Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actress

 

1. Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Bale has turned in a slew of punishing performances over the years with no previous Oscar recognition. He’s swept the early precursors and is poised to win the whole thing.

2. Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

The King’s Speech is a heavy hitter this awards season, and Rush has received nominations from all of the major awards groups so far.

3. Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)

Ruffalo has turned in consistently strong performances for years with barely any recognition, and now could be his time. However, the film is losing a bit of steam, and Ruffalo’s presence this awards season has been spotty.

4. Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)

Audiences and critics are going nuts for The Social Network. Garfield’s sympathetic performance combined with the huge year he’s had (he’s the new Spiderman!) could get him some attention. But it’s not a typical “Oscar” role, and he missed out on a SAG nomination. Possible vote-splitting with co-stars.

5. Jeremy Renner (The Town)

I doubted his chances for a long time, but the praise from The Town‘s initial release seems to be sticking. He got a Globe and SAG nomination. He’s starting to gain legitimate buzz, but The Town hasn’t been a huge player this awards season. Too little too late?

6. John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)

He’s slowly earning buzz, and landed a SAG nomination. Lawrence’s recognition may bring more eyes to the film.

But how much Oscar love can this small of a movie receive?

 

Longshots

Sam Rockwell (Conviction)

Matt Damon (True Grit)

 

Awards Tracker

HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards

(Red asterisk denotes win)

 

Bale

Rush

Ruffalo

Garfield

Renner

Hawkes

Rockwell

HFPA

*

*

 

*

*

   

SAG

*

*

*

 

*

*

 

BFCA

*

*

*

*

*

 

*

ISA

   

*

   

*

 

IPA

*

*

 

*

*

   

Chicago

*

*

*

*

 

*

 

D.C.

*

*

 

*

 

*

*

Detroit

*

*

*

*

 

*

*

Houston

*

*

 

*

*

   

Las Vegas

*

*

*

*

     

Phoenix

*

*

*

*

     

San Diego

*

*

   

*

*

 

St. Louis

*

*

   

*

*

*

NBR

*

           

HFA

           

*

Boston

*

           

Dallas

*

           

Indiana

*

       

*

 

L.A.

 

*

         

N.Y.

   

*

       

N.Y Online

*

           

San Fran

         

*

 

Southeast

*

*

         

Toronto

*

           

 

Past Predictions

December – 1. Bale, 2. Rush, 3. Ruffalo, 4. Garfield, 5. Renner

November – 1. Rush, 2. Bale, 3. Harris, 4. Ruffalo, 5. Damon

October – 1. Rush, 2. Bale, 3. Harris, 4. Damon, 5. Rockwell

September – 1. Rush, 2. Harris, 3. Bale, 4. Rockwell, 5. Ruffalo

August – 1. Harris, 2. Rockwell, 3. Bale, 4. Ruffalo, 5. Brolin

July – Bale, Brolin, Garfield (NLMG), Harris, Rockwell

June – Bale, Brolin, Garfield (NLMG), Harris, Rockwell

May – Bale, Brolin, Garfield (NLMG), Harris, Ruffalo

March – Bale, Brolin, Garfield (Never Let Me Go), Harris, Penn

10 responses to “Oscar Predictions 2011: Best Supporting Actor

  1. Bale all the way.He probably wont win but he should definitely be nominated.I think he is overdue(American Psycho,Harsh Times,The Machinist) The academy shouldnt judge him on his stupid mistake(t4 rant) and it would be unfair for them to do so.I am probably biased as I have a crush on him, but I can honestly say he deserves a nomination!

    • I’m looking forward to his performance. It seems like this is his first role that would really appeal to the Academy, so I think he has a pretty decent shot at getting nominated.

  2. Jeremy Renner for The Town? He was good, people liked Hurt Locker.

    • I’m starting to think that you’re right. I may have underestimated his chances, because he’s getting lot of recognition so far (most notably, the Golden Globe nomination). He could definitely snag the fifth spot.

  3. Let’s just say it came down to a life or death situation, hypothetically speaking of course (:, who would you pick to take it home, Bale or Rush.

    • Up until recently I would’ve said Rush, but it seems like Bale is on a roll, so I’d have to go with him right now. His film also seems to be the right combination of Oscar-bait and crowd-pleaser.

  4. People shouldn’t underestimate how good Justin Timberlake’s performance as Sean Parker in The Social Network is. The man is wonderfully gifted as an actor and entertainer and was perfectly cast in a role that was perfectly played. It takes a great talent to portray that kind of fragile bravado, that magnetic charisma tempered with vulnerability and humor, that manic optimism masking secret desperation, not to mention a man dealing with addictions, insecurities, cowardice, and paranoia, who wants to control a piece of the world while still maintaining the charm and swagger necessary to seduce others to want to follow his lead. Timberlake has shown his ability in Alpha Dog, Black Snake Moan, and Southland Tales. However, I say this because I really would love to see younger actors acknowledged in this category, similar to the female equivalent. I would love to see Bale win over Jeremy Renner, Andrew Garlfield, Justin Timberlake and Mark Ruffalo, even though I know Geoffrey Rush will be nominated and this is the Academy’s last chance to honor Michael Douglas. I just hope it isn’t at the cost of Social Network completely missing out in this category. Its ensemble and lead were superb beyond their years.

  5. Christian Bale all the way; Josh Brolin was in the movie for 2 minutes….NO WAY!

  6. Christian Bale will walk home with a trophy for this one, although I think Hawkes gave the best performance this year. I would have rather seen Garfield get a nomination for his overlooked role in “Never Let Me Go” than “The Social Network,” but maybe he’ll grab a Best Actor in a Leading Role for his upcoming Spidey flick.

    Maybe my mind will change once I get the chance to see “The Kids Are All Right.” I can’t put my money on Ruffalo when he’s not getting the press and I haven’t seen the product.

    Check out my Oscar picks at http://kokomccune.wordpress.com/83rd-oscars-feb-27-2011/

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