Oscar Predictions 2011: Best Actor

Last Updated: January 24, 2010

The Best Actor race is starting to really narrow down the field. For my money, there are only six names truly in the running (unless someone else surprises). And for me, it just comes down to whether Jeff Bridges or Ryan Gosling will take the fifth spot. A lot of the awards groups are solidly Firth/Franco/Eisenberg/Duvall/Bridges, but I don’t think that Gosling is out of the running yet. He scored nomination with two of the three “major” awards (Globes, SAG, Critic’s Choice), and that’s just as good as Duvall and Bridges (all three got critics choice, Bridges and Duvall got SAG, and Gosling got Globes).

Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination

Orange = good chance of nomination

Yellow = a strong contender

Green = in the mix

Blue = longshot

Oscar Predictions Home | Best Picture | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress

1. Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)

There’s basically no way that Firth won’t be nominated, and he’s probably going to win the whole thing. He’s been a respected actor for a long time, and after losing for A Single Man (which I totally thought he should have won for, by the way), it’s his to lose this year.

2. James Franco (127 Hours)

Franco is earning accolades for this intense role, and he’s at the peak of his popularity right now. It’s a one-man-show onscreen, and having Danny Boyle behind the camera will only help. Even though he’s relatively young at 32, he’s likely to be nominated, even if his film gets overlooked elsewhere, as some are predicting.

3. Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)

He’s the star in one of the most talked-about films of the year, and many have re-evaluated his career after watching his performance. The Academy loves career-changing performances. However, he is very young, and not quite a household name, so I don’t think he’s a complete lock.

5. Jeff Bridges (True Grit)

The Jeff Bridges wave of love is still going strong, and his colourful portrayal of Rooster Cogburn could be enough to get him another nomination. However he did just win last year, and he was also snubbed at the GGs.

4. Robert Duvall (Get Low)

Critics has lavished his performance with high praise, and as a respected veteran actor, he has a good shot at receiving a nomination. But thanks to an early release date and little-seen film, his buzz is waning.

6. Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)

Gosling is a previous nominee in this category and a very respected young actor (probably even more so than Eisenberg or even Franco). The proposed NC-17 rating (which was switched to an R) brought the film more attention than it would otherwise get. But Gosling is still young, and his 2006 nomination could be seen as sufficient recognition, for now.

 

Long Shots

Javier Bardem (Biutiful)

Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)

 

Awards Tracker

HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards

(Red asterisk denotes win)

 

Firth

Franco

Eisenberg

Duvall

Bridges

Gosling

Wahlberg

HFPA

*

*

*

   

*

*

SAG

*

*

*

*

*

   

BFCA

*

*

*

*

*

*

 

ISA

 

*

         

IPA

*

*

*

*

 

*

 

Chicago

*

*

*

 

*

*

 

D.C.

*

*

*

*

*

   

Detroit

*

*

*

 

*

*

 

Houston

*

*

*

*

*

   

Las Vegas

*

*

 

*

*

   

Phoenix

*

*

*

*

*

   

San Diego

*

*

*

       

St. Louis

*

*

*

 

*

   

NBR

   

*

       

HFA

     

*

     

Boston

   

*

       

Dallas

 

*

         

Indiana

 

*

*

       

L.A.

*

           

N.Y.

*

           

N.Y Online

 

*

         

San Fran

*

           

Southeast

*

*

         

Toronto

*

*

*

       

 

Past Predictions

December: 1. Firth, 2. Franco, 3. Eisenberg, 4. Duvall, 5. Bridges

November: 1. Firth, 2. Franco, 3. Duvall, 4. Bridges, 5. Eisenberg

October: 1. Firth, 2. Franco, 3. Duvall, 4. Eisenberg, 5. Bridges

September: 1. Firth, 2. Franco, 3. Duvall, 4. Gosling, 5. Bardem

August: 1. Duvall, 2. Firth, 3. Gosling, 4. Dorff, 5. Bardem

July: Bardem, Dorff, Duvall, Firth, Gosling

June: Bardem, Dorff (Somewhere), Duvall, Firth, Gosling

May: Damon, Duvall, Farrell (The Way Back), Firth, Gosling

March: Damon (Hereafter), Duvall, Eckhart, Firth, Gosling

 

Back to 2011 Oscar Predictions page

3 responses to “Oscar Predictions 2011: Best Actor

  1. lets not overlook Mark Wahlberg-lead actor for The Fighter as well as make up on The Fighter,both superb! Also Kevin Spacey for Casino Jack

  2. I’m going with James Franco;Mark Wahlberg was NOT THE STAR of The Fighter.

  3. I really wish Duvall would have gotten a nod from the Academy for “Get Low.” Although Firth deserves to walk away with it, I loved Duvall’s old hermit. It was definitely more deserving than Bardem.

    Que sera, sera, eh?

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